Monday, November 12, 2018

Anatomy of a Big Hit

I woke up earlier than usual and at around 8AM put together 6 NFL teams for the main slate. I have always argued that playing the main slate evens the playing field: Only pros play all day. I checked the odds (over/unders) & weather. I only had $65 left in my account after hemming and hawing for a week from a peak of $234. I entered a couple of small single entry tourneys: $10, $5, $2, & 2x$9.99. I had $28 left. I noticed a $30 single entry series: “What the heck?” So I canceled out of the $2 well b4 kickoff & entered the $30 Single Entry Series (4901 entries). Lessons Learned: (1) Get up early, don’t get stuck w/ the shitty contests late; (2) have 5-10 teams made up already; & (3) try to enter single entry contests. I set my teams, entered my contests, & checked injuries about 5 min b4 kickoff. I’ll have 2 check injuries & reassess b4 the next game. Set it & forget it (until u need 2 reassess).

About my favorite team (FD$, % owned in $30 contest): Mitch Trubisky ($7700, 4.4%), David Johnson ($6900, 17%), Nick Chubb ($6700, 6%), Tyler Boyd ($7800, 18.4%), Allen Robinson II ($6300, 1.5%!), Keenan Allen ($7900, 9.1%), Jordan Reed ($5200, 25.1%), & Rams D. These were mostly players on my weekly fantasy league. I knew about them this week. I had to scout Trubisky to replace Cousins this week (bye). I added Robinson to complement Trubisky & w/ Darrius Slay (Det CB) out (game-time call). Robinson just came off the DL and ended up only owned by 1.5%. Also, I got a tip from a RotoGrinders Podcast to take the Packers D ($3900, 25.8% owned). They were the same price as Rams D. The RG argument made sense 2me. Plus it’s much colder in GB. I can’t trust the Rams D after last weeks debacle, anyway. I needed some change at D, so I went w/ the RotoGrinder pick here. 

The above team only left my flex position open. My Method: Fill the team w/o flex...Then take the best player available. This pointed me to Tyreke Hill ($7600, 12.6% owned) as my final player. So I set the team and watched the games, mostly the Detroit-Chicago game. Lessons Learned: (1) check the weather; (2) look at the odds; (3) watch a few Roto Grinder podcasts; (4) make last changes upon research; & (5) employ the “Flex-Last Best-Available Method. So I started watching the games. Flash forward to 11:55AM: Some fotos may help here...

I surge to 7th Place fueled by a recent combination of: (a) Trubisky-Robinson TD (16 pts); (b) Chubb 92-us TD Dash (16 PTA’s); (c) David Johnson TD catch (10 pts); & Tyreke Evans TD catch (9 pts)...For a 3-minute, 50-points barrage that moved me from 142nd to 7th. 

Another Trubisky to Robinson TD. Then David Johnson gets in from 1-yd out...We move to 3rd Place, having made up a lot of ground: The Bears K hit the goalpost 4 times, while Drew Brees rested in a 51-7 blowout. Trubisky was still in the game destined to record his personal high for passing yardage. So what do the others have left?...
Not much, it turns out. The top 2 have no late player remaining. I still had the GB D & Keenan Allen left to go in the afternoon finales & u get 10 pts once ur D starts a game...
The Packers game starts. So now I’m lurking in 2nd, 6 pts behind 1st. But I will probably lose pts with my D, henceforth. #3 & #5 in the standings both have the Rams D. I thought about shifting, but felt I was the front runner w/ the better D: They were forced to pick the Rams to catch up. A big turnover by Miami (who were about to go in) helped early. Keenan Allen shut out thru most of the 1st half. Then, in a moment of glory, Keenan Allen score at the very end of the 1st half...a great catch!
Now I’m tied for the lead (w/ a dead horse)...Altho I can go backwards too. Note how XGaucho now looms large w/ a combo of Melvin Gordon, Cooper Kupp, & GB D on staff: He's a real threat...
Some GB sacks & 2 clutch Allen catches propels me to the top..about 1q left in last 3 games...
Now it’s getting too close for comfort, note how XGaucho has narrowed the margin to 4.45 pts...But it looks like I’m a lock for 2nd...maybe 1st w/ a little luck. Both games bog down. By then SD is winning big & Melvin Gordon is not doing much. The Rams are driving in the Red Zone. Commentary: "A pass to Cooper Kupp...incomplete...Kupp is injured on the play, his return is doubtful.” Now, I feel for Cooper Kupp, he's one of my favorite players...I hope he comes back fine. But that pretty much clinched 1st 4me. I end the day w/ a nice victory. In the end, 3rd place was > 12 pts. (2 TDs) from my team. I just somehow held on. That doesn't happen often...A lesson in patience. Here are the final results... 
And my final team tallies...
Not shown at the bottom, Reed got 7.1 pts. & GB D got 14 pts. (Rams D got 5 pts = 9 pt difference): 205.5 Final Points: A solid score. This would have got me only $7500 in the big $9.99 Million $  Contest. So respect thy single entry...it evens the field and, thus, pays to play.

So that’s how u win $20K on a $30 last-minute entry. I assessed the situation b4 the late games, but chose to stand pat on my plays (I was the favorite, after all). This should help me try to qualify for the Single Entry finals...we’ll see! I hope u enjoyed the story. Thx to RotoGrinders 4 putting the contest 2gether (& helping propel me from 2nd to 1st based on ur Podcast suggestion of GB D). Keep playing, maybe u will have such a day!

Sunday, July 29, 2018

MLB Fan Duel Player VALU 7/29/18

0P Rodon, Carlos ChW 8,100 400 9,600 2,300 1500 1900 2700 51 5.7
0P Gonzales, Marco Sea 8,900 100 9,900 1,900 1000 1800 2000 41 4.7
0P Pena, Felix Ana 7,000 300 7,300 1,800 300 1500 2100 22 3.6
0P Musgrove, Joe Pit 7,200 -300 7,300 1,000 100 1300 700 31 2.4
0P McCullers, Lance Hou 10,100 -400 10,200 700 100 1100 300 7 1.9
0P Berrios, Jose Min 10,700 -100 10,800 800 100 900 700 58 1.8
0P Kluber, Corey Cle 10,600 -400 12,000 -200 1400 200 -600 9 1.4
0P Bundy, Dylan Bal 7,000 -900 6,700 400 -300 1300 -500 9 1.4
0P Eovaldi, Nathan Bos 7,500 100 8,300 300 800 200 400 43 1.3
0P Buchholz, Clay Ari 7,700 -400 7,100 400 -600 800 0 42 0.6
0P Hellickson, Jeremy Was 6,600 300 6,500 400 -100 100 700 15 0.4
0P Happ, James NYY 8,300 300 9,200 -300 900 -600 0 39 0.0
0P Chirinos, Yonny Tam 5,900 100 5,100 400 -800 300 500 33 -0.1
0P Hendricks, Kyle ChC 7,400 0 7,200 0 -200 0 0 30 -0.2
0P Castillo, Luis Cin 6,400 -400 6,400 -400 0 0 -800 28 -0.4
0P Guerra, Junior Mil 8,400 200 7,600 0 -800 -200 200 31 -1.0
0P Wheeler, Zack NYM 9,000 900 8,000 300 -1000 -600 1200 34 -1.3
0P Newcomb, Sean Atl 7,200 200 7,500 -700 300 -900 -500 40 -1.3
0P Smith, Burch Kan 5,800 300 4,200 200 -1600 -100 500 41 -1.5
0P Gant, John StL 6,800 0 4,800 0 -2000 0 0 21 -2.0
0P Minor, Mike Tex 6,500 100 4,600 -400 -1900 -500 -300 24 -2.8
0P Suarez, Andrew Sfo 7,300 -200 6,300 -1,200 -1000 -1000 -1400 11 -3.2
0P Lucchesi, Joey Sdg 7,400 400 7,000 -1,300 -400 -1700 -900 34 -3.4
0P Eflin, Zach Phi 9,000 -500 7,800 -1,500 -1200 -1000 -2000 2 -3.7
0P Montas, Frankie Oak 6,700 -200 5,400 -1,600 -1300 -1400 -1800 15 -4.3
0P Zimmermann, Jordan Det 7,900 -100 7,000 -1,800 -900 -1700 -1900 15 -4.4
0P Marquez, German Col 7,000 0 5,700 -1,700 -1300 -1700 -1700 18 -4.7
0P Urena, Jose Fla 6,600 -200 4,900 -1,600 -1700 -1400 -1800 9 -4.7
0P Stripling, Ross Los 9,600 300 8,500 -1,700 -1100 -2000 -1400 17 -4.8
0P Borucki, Ryan Tor 6,900 500 5,500 -1,900 -1400 -2400 -1400 28 -5.7
1B Kiner-Falefa, Isiah Tex 2,000 -100 3,900 1,000 1900 1100 900 28.0 4.0
1B Chirinos, Robinson Tex 2,400 -200 3,900 800 1500 1000 600 20.3 3.3
1B Aguilar, Jesus Mil 3,600 -600 4,900 600 1300 1200 0 8.4 3.1
1B Adams, Matt Was 2,700 -400 4,600 400 1900 800 0 19.2 3.1
1B Hosmer, Eric Sdg 2,700 -300 3,800 700 1100 1000 400 3.0 2.8
1B Bour, Justin Fla 2,500 -600 3,900 200 1400 800 -400 1.8 2.4
1B Guzman, Ronald Tex 2,300 -100 3,600 500 1300 600 400 8.4 2.4
1B Alonso, Yonder Cle 3,000 0 4,500 400 1500 400 400 18.8 2.3
1B Alfaro, Jorge Phi 2,900 200 4,200 600 1300 400 800 12.2 2.3
1B Posey, Buster Sfo 2,800 0 4,000 500 1200 500 500 12.4 2.2
1B Davis, J.D. Hou 2,000 -200 4,000 0 2000 200 -200 3.0 2.2
1B Hedges, Austin Sdg 2,600 100 3,600 600 1000 500 700 12.3 2.1
1B Murphy, J.R. Ari 2,000 -100 3,200 400 1200 500 300 0.0 2.1
1B Goldschmidt, Paul Ari 4,200 300 5,100 700 900 400 1000 10.5 2.0
1B Freeman, Freddie Atl 4,000 -300 4,900 400 900 700 100 2.0 2.0
1B Gattis, Evan Hou 2,500 -200 4,100 100 1600 300 -100 16.9 2.0
2B Asuaje, Carlos Sdg 2,400 -200 3,800 700 1400 900 500 0.0 3.0
2B Wade, Tyler NYY 2,100 0 3,900 500 1800 500 500 3.0 2.8
2B Cabrera, Asdrubal Phi 3,300 -100 4,900 300 1600 400 200 23.7 2.3
2B Hernandez, Cesar Phi 3,200 -300 4,700 100 1500 400 -200 10.4 2.0
2B Perez, Hernan Mil 2,200 0 3,600 300 1400 300 300 12.2 2.0
2B Hanson, Alen Sfo 2,300 -300 3,700 100 1400 400 -200 4.5 1.9
2B Herrera, Dilson Cin 2,000 0 3,900 0 1900 0 0 0.0 1.9
2B Odor, Rougned Tex 3,300 100 4,200 500 900 400 600 29.4 1.8
2B Harrison, Josh Pit 2,700 -100 3,400 400 700 500 300 14.2 1.6
2B Zobrist, Ben ChC 2,700 -200 4,100 0 1400 200 -200 9.0 1.6
3B Freese, David Pit 2,200 -500 4,000 900 1800 1400 400 36.5 4.1
3B Spangenberg, Cory Sdg 2,100 -200 3,500 700 1400 900 500 0.0 3.0
3B Moran, Colin Pit 2,100 -500 3,500 500 1400 1000 0 13.0 2.9
3B Profar, Jurickson Tex 3,000 -100 4,100 600 1100 700 500 22.1 2.4
3B Beltre, Adrian Tex 2,700 300 3,600 600 900 300 900 12.5 1.8
3B Camargo, Johan Atl 2,800 -100 3,900 100 1100 200 0 7.2 1.4
3B Sanchez, Yolmer ChW 2,500 -500 3,600 -100 1100 400 -600 8.3 1.4
3B Sandoval, Pablo Sfo 2,000 -300 3,300 -100 1300 200 -400 3.0 1.4
3B Carpenter, Matt StL 4,000 -100 5,200 0 1200 100 -100 6.1 1.3
3B Escobar, Eduardo Ari 3,400 0 4,500 100 1100 100 100 12.2 1.3
3B Duffy, Matt Tam 2,600 -300 4,000 -200 1400 100 -500 1.5 1.3
3B Nunez, Renato Bal 2,100 0 3,400 0 1300 0 0 0.0 1.3
3B Bregman, Alex Hou 4,200 -100 5,500 -100 1300 0 -200 14.1 1.2
5S Mercer, Jordy Pit 2,200 -400 3,300 400 1100 800 0 8.1 2.3
5S Kingery, Scott Phi 2,500 -400 4,000 100 1500 500 -300 7.6 2.1
5S Ahmed, Nick Ari 3,100 700 4,400 700 1300 0 1400 22.4 2.0
5S Anderson, Tim ChW 2,800 -200 4,300 100 1500 300 -100 5.2 1.9
5S Polanco, Jorge Min 2,800 -500 4,100 0 1300 500 -500 15.7 1.8
5S Galvis, Freddy Sdg 2,500 -200 3,400 300 900 500 100 6.0 1.7
5S Saladino, Tyler Mil 2,300 -200 3,200 300 900 500 100 0.0 1.7
5S Riddle, J.T. Fla 2,000 -500 3,000 100 1000 600 -400 0.0 1.7
5S Gregorius, Didi NYY 3,800 -100 5,300 0 1500 100 -100 15.7 1.6
5S Turner, Trea Was 3,600 -100 4,700 200 1100 300 100 24.8 1.6
OF Calhoun, Willie Tex 2,300 -200 4,200 900 1900 1100 700 4.8 3.9
OF Choo, Shin-Soo Tex 3,000 -500 4,700 700 1700 1200 200 13.6 3.6
OF Jankowski, Travis Sdg 2,400 -100 4,000 900 1600 1000 800 3.0 3.5
OF Tucker, Kyle Hou 2,300 0 4,500 600 2200 600 600 0.0 3.4
OF Gallo, Joey Tex 2,600 -100 4,300 500 1700 600 400 19.1 2.8
OF Phillips, Brett Kan 2,200 0 3,800 600 1600 600 600 0.0 2.8
OF Peterson, Jace Bal 2,100 -100 4,000 400 1900 500 300 9.0 2.8
OF Marte, Starling Pit 3,500 -500 4,800 400 1300 900 -100 0.0 2.6
OF Thames, Eric Mil 3,100 -900 4,600 100 1500 1000 -800 19.9 2.6
OF Luplow, Jordan Pit 2,200 -100 3,700 500 1500 600 400 14.4 2.6
OF Williams, Mason Cin 2,000 0 3,400 600 1400 600 600 15.9 2.6
OF Gonzalez, Carlos Col 3,400 400 5,500 400 2100 0 800 16.6 2.5
OF Dietrich, Derek Fla 2,500 -700 4,300 0 1800 700 -700 0.0 2.5
OF Soto, Juan Was 4,000 100 5,300 600 1300 500 700 24.9 2.4
OF Polanco, Gregory Pit 3,600 100 4,700 700 1100 600 800 14.3 2.4
OF Kepler, Max Min 2,500 -500 4,200 100 1700 600 -400 7.6 2.4
OF Frazier, Adam Pit 2,100 0 3,700 400 1600 400 400 15.5 2.4
OF Pollock, A.J. Ari 3,800 100 5,200 400 1400 300 500 6.2 2.1
OF Brantley, Michael Cle 3,400 -400 4,500 300 1100 700 -100 7.6 2.1
OF Jones, Adam Bal 2,900 0 4,200 400 1300 400 400 17.0 2.1
OF Span, Denard Sea 2,600 -200 4,300 100 1700 300 -100 3.0 2.1
OF Goodwin, Brian Kan 2,200 200 3,700 400 1500 200 600 14.6 2.1
OF Bader, Harrison StL 2,100 -200 4,000 0 1900 200 -200 0.0 2.1
OF Blackmon, Charlie Col 4,100 100 5,600 300 1500 200 400 10.6 2.0

MLB Draft Kings Player VALU 7/29/18

0P Gant, John StL 6,800 0 4,800 0 2000 0 0 21 2.0
0P Minor, Mike Tex 6,500 100 4,600 -400 1900 500 -300 24 2.0
0P Wheeler, Zack NYM 9,000 900 8,000 300 1000 600 1200 34 1.9
0P Smith, Burch Kan 5,800 300 4,200 200 1600 100 500 41 1.9
0P Borucki, Ryan Tor 6,900 500 5,500 -1,900 1400 2400 -1400 28 1.9
0P Urena, Jose Fla 6,600 -200 4,900 -1,600 1700 1400 -1800 9 1.5
0P Stripling, Ross Los 9,600 300 8,500 -1,700 1100 2000 -1400 17 1.4
0P Marquez, German Col 7,000 0 5,700 -1,700 1300 1700 -1700 18 1.3
0P Montas, Frankie Oak 6,700 -200 5,400 -1,600 1300 1400 -1800 15 1.1
0P Guerra, Junior Mil 8,400 200 7,600 0 800 200 200 31 1.0
0P Chirinos, Yonny Tam 5,900 100 5,100 400 800 -300 500 33 0.9
0P Suarez, Andrew Sfo 7,300 -200 6,300 -1,200 1000 1000 -1400 11 0.8
0P Lucchesi, Joey Sdg 7,400 400 7,000 -1,300 400 1700 -900 34 0.8
0P Zimmermann, Jordan Det 7,900 -100 7,000 -1,800 900 1700 -1900 15 0.8
0P Eflin, Zach Phi 9,000 -500 7,800 -1,500 1200 1000 -2000 2 0.7
0P Hellickson, Jeremy Was 6,600 300 6,500 400 100 -100 700 15 0.4
0P Buchholz, Clay Ari 7,700 -400 7,100 400 600 -800 0 42 0.2
0P Hendricks, Kyle ChC 7,400 0 7,200 0 200 0 0 30 0.2
0P Pena, Felix Ana 7,000 300 7,300 1,800 -300 -1500 2100 22 0.0
0P Newcomb, Sean Atl 7,200 200 7,500 -700 -300 900 -500 40 -0.1
0P Berrios, Jose Min 10,700 -100 10,800 800 -100 -900 700 58 -0.2
0P Musgrove, Joe Pit 7,200 -300 7,300 1,000 -100 -1300 700 31 -0.4
0P Castillo, Luis Cin 6,400 -400 6,400 -400 0 0 -800 28 -0.4
0P McCullers, Lance Hou 10,100 -400 10,200 700 -100 -1100 300 7 -0.5
0P Bundy, Dylan Bal 7,000 -900 6,700 400 300 -1300 -500 9 -0.6
0P Happ, James NYY 8,300 300 9,200 -300 -900 600 0 39 -0.6
0P Eovaldi, Nathan Bos 7,500 100 8,300 300 -800 -200 400 43 -0.7
0P Gonzales, Marco Sea 8,900 100 9,900 1,900 -1000 -1800 2000 41 -0.9
0P Rodon, Carlos ChW 8,100 400 9,600 2,300 -1500 -1900 2700 51 -1.1
0P Kluber, Corey Cle 10,600 -400 12,000 -200 -1400 -200 -600 9 -1.8
1B Lucroy, Jonathan Oak 3,000 900 3,400 0 -400 900 900 6.2 0.5
1B Iannetta, Chris Col 3,100 600 3,200 -500 -100 1100 100 3.0 0.5
1B Wolters, Tony Col 3,000 800 3,400 200 -400 600 1000 0.0 0.4
1B Phegley, Josh Oak 3,000 800 3,500 -100 -500 900 700 9.0 0.3
1B Martinez, Victor Det 2,600 500 2,900 0 -300 500 500 15.3 0.2
1B Murphy, Tommy Col 3,000 1,000 3,800 -100 -800 1100 900 15.7 0.2
1B Mathis, Jeff Ari 2,500 400 2,800 300 -300 100 700 17.3 0.1
1B Abreu, Jose ChW 3,600 600 4,200 -100 -600 700 500 21.9 0.0
1B Morales, Kendrys Tor 3,200 700 3,900 -200 -700 900 500 17.1 0.0
2B Valaika, Pat Col 3,000 1,000 3,100 -100 -100 1100 900 25.2 0.9
2B Hampson, Garrett Col 3,000 1,000 4,200 0 -1200 1000 1000 6.5 -0.2
2B Dixon, Brandon Cin 2,400 400 3,000 0 -600 400 400 0.0 -0.2
2B Rodriguez, Ronny Det 2,200 200 2,700 0 -500 200 200 0.0 -0.3
2B Kinsler, Ian Ana 3,400 400 4,100 -200 -700 600 200 26.1 -0.3
3B Sano, Miguel Min 3,000 1,000 3,500 0 -500 1000 1000 0.0 0.5
3B Chapman, Matt Oak 4,100 1,200 4,900 -200 -800 1400 1000 24.4 0.4
3B Longoria, Evan Sfo 2,800 800 3,500 0 -700 800 800 6.1 0.1
3B Fletcher, David Ana 2,900 400 3,200 -300 -300 700 100 6.2 0.1
3B Candelario, Jeimer Det 3,200 300 3,700 0 -500 300 300 1.5 -0.2
3B Solarte, Yangervis Tor 3,000 400 3,600 -200 -600 600 200 3.2 -0.2
3B Guillorme, Luis NYM 2,000 0 2,300 0 -300 0 0 0.0 -0.3
3B Valbuena, Luis Ana 2,400 300 3,000 -300 -600 600 0 0.0 -0.3
3B La Stella, Tommy ChC 2,200 200 2,800 0 -600 200 200 0.0 -0.4
3B Arenado, Nolan Col 4,700 200 5,300 -400 -600 600 -200 23.2 -0.4
5S Semien, Marcus Oak 3,900 900 4,400 -200 -500 1100 700 6.2 0.4
5S Rosario, Amed NYM 3,000 700 3,400 -200 -400 900 500 8.3 0.3
5S Iglesias, Jose Det 2,600 500 3,200 0 -600 500 500 10.6 -0.1
5S Andrus, Elvis Tex 3,600 300 4,100 400 -500 -100 700 9.2 -0.2
5S Gonzalez, Marwin Hou 2,900 100 3,300 -100 -400 200 0 1.5 -0.3
5S Beckham, Tim Bal 2,800 300 3,500 -100 -700 400 200 13.4 -0.4
OF Martini, Nick Oak 3,300 1,300 3,400 -100 -100 1400 1200 20.0 1.2
OF Guyer, Brandon Cle 3,100 600 3,000 -500 100 1100 100 0.0 0.7
OF Fowler, Dustin Oak 3,400 1,300 4,200 -100 -800 1400 1200 15.7 0.5
OF Cuevas, Noel Col 3,000 1,000 3,500 -100 -500 1100 900 3.1 0.5
OF Calhoun, Kole Ana 3,400 900 3,900 -200 -500 1100 700 26.2 0.4
OF Trout, Mike Ana 5,300 800 6,000 200 -700 600 1000 15.3 0.1
OF Davis, Khris Oak 4,600 1,200 5,800 -100 -1200 1300 1100 5.3 0.0
OF Pinder, Chad Oak 3,200 900 4,100 -100 -900 1000 800 0.0 0.0
OF Martinez, J.D. Bos 4,700 -100 4,600 -1,100 100 1000 -1200 11.3 0.0
OF Herrera, Rosell Kan 2,300 300 2,900 0 -600 300 300 14.6 -0.3
OF Acuna, Ronald Atl 3,700 500 4,500 -100 -800 600 400 8.4 -0.3
OF Kemp, Matt Los 3,700 400 4,400 -200 -700 600 200 5.1 -0.3
OF Young, Eric Ana 2,000 0 2,400 100 -400 -100 100 0.0 -0.4
OF Puig, Yasiel Los 3,000 -200 3,200 0 -200 -200 -200 31.9 -0.4
OF Piscotty, Stephen Oak 3,500 500 4,400 -200 -900 700 300 3.0 -0.4
OF Pederson, Joc Los 3,400 400 4,200 -400 -800 800 0 7.8 -0.4
OF Rickard, Joey Bal 2,300 100 2,800 -500 -500 600 -400 36.9 -0.4