Anatomy of a Big Hit

I woke up earlier than usual and at around 8AM put together 6 NFL teams for the main slate. I have always argued that playing the main slate evens the playing field: Only pros play all day. I checked the odds (over/unders) & weather. I only had $65 left in my account after hemming and hawing for a week from a peak of $234. I entered a couple of small single entry tourneys: $10, $5, $2, & 2x$9.99. I had $28 left. I noticed a $30 single entry series: “What the heck?” So I canceled out of the $2 well b4 kickoff & entered the $30 Single Entry Series (4901 entries). Lessons Learned: (1) Get up early, don’t get stuck w/ the shitty contests late; (2) have 5-10 teams made up already; & (3) try to enter single entry contests. I set my teams, entered my contests, & checked injuries about 5 min b4 kickoff. I’ll have 2 check injuries & reassess b4 the next game. Set it & forget it (until u need 2 reassess).

About my favorite team (FD$, % owned in $30 contest): Mitch Trubisky ($7700, 4.4%), David Johnson ($6900, 17%), Nick Chubb ($6700, 6%), Tyler Boyd ($7800, 18.4%), Allen Robinson II ($6300, 1.5%!), Keenan Allen ($7900, 9.1%), Jordan Reed ($5200, 25.1%), & Rams D. These were mostly players on my weekly fantasy league. I knew about them this week. I had to scout Trubisky to replace Cousins this week (bye). I added Robinson to complement Trubisky & w/ Darrius Slay (Det CB) out (game-time call). Robinson just came off the DL and ended up only owned by 1.5%. Also, I got a tip from a RotoGrinders Podcast to take the Packers D ($3900, 25.8% owned). They were the same price as Rams D. The RG argument made sense 2me. Plus it’s much colder in GB. I can’t trust the Rams D after last weeks debacle, anyway. I needed some change at D, so I went w/ the RotoGrinder pick here. 

The above team only left my flex position open. My Method: Fill the team w/o flex...Then take the best player available. This pointed me to Tyreke Hill ($7600, 12.6% owned) as my final player. So I set the team and watched the games, mostly the Detroit-Chicago game. Lessons Learned: (1) check the weather; (2) look at the odds; (3) watch a few Roto Grinder podcasts; (4) make last changes upon research; & (5) employ the “Flex-Last Best-Available Method. So I started watching the games. Flash forward to 11:55AM: Some fotos may help here...

I surge to 7th Place fueled by a recent combination of: (a) Trubisky-Robinson TD (16 pts); (b) Chubb 92-us TD Dash (16 PTA’s); (c) David Johnson TD catch (10 pts); & Tyreke Evans TD catch (9 pts)...For a 3-minute, 50-points barrage that moved me from 142nd to 7th. 

Another Trubisky to Robinson TD. Then David Johnson gets in from 1-yd out...We move to 3rd Place, having made up a lot of ground: The Bears K hit the goalpost 4 times, while Drew Brees rested in a 51-7 blowout. Trubisky was still in the game destined to record his personal high for passing yardage. So what do the others have left?...

Not much, it turns out. The top 2 have no late player remaining. I still had the GB D & Keenan Allen left to go in the afternoon finales & u get 10 pts once ur D starts a game...

The Packers game starts. So now I’m lurking in 2nd, 6 pts behind 1st. But I will probably lose pts with my D, henceforth. #3 & #5 in the standings both have the Rams D. I thought about shifting, but felt I was the front runner w/ the better D: They were forced to pick the Rams to catch up. A big turnover by Miami (who were about to go in) helped early. Keenan Allen shut out thru most of the 1st half. Then, in a moment of glory, Keenan Allen score at the very end of the 1st half...a great catch!

Now I’m tied for the lead (w/ a dead horse)...Altho I can go backwards too. Note how XGaucho now looms large w/ a combo of Melvin Gordon, Cooper Kupp, & GB D on staff: He's a real threat...

Some GB sacks & 2 clutch Allen catches propels me to the top..about 1q left in last 3 games...

Now it’s getting too close for comfort, note how XGaucho has narrowed the margin to 4.45 pts...But it looks like I’m a lock for 2nd...maybe 1st w/ a little luck. Both games bog down. By then SD is winning big & Melvin Gordon is not doing much. The Rams are driving in the Red Zone. Commentary: "A pass to Cooper Kupp...incomplete...Kupp is injured on the play, his return is doubtful.” Now, I feel for Cooper Kupp, he's one of my favorite players...I hope he comes back fine. But that pretty much clinched 1st 4me. I end the day w/ a nice victory. In the end, 3rd place was > 12 pts. (2 TDs) from my team. I just somehow held on. That doesn't happen often...A lesson in patience. Here are the final results... 

And my final team tallies...

Not shown at the bottom, Reed got 7.1 pts. & GB D got 14 pts. (Rams D got 5 pts = 9 pt difference): 205.5 Final Points: A solid score. This would have got me only $7500 in the big $9.99 Million $  Contest. So respect thy single entry...it evens the field and, thus, pays to play.

So that’s how u win $20K on a $30 last-minute entry. I assessed the situation b4 the late games, but chose to stand pat on my plays (I was the favorite, after all). This should help me try to qualify for the Single Entry finals...we’ll see! I hope u enjoyed the story. Thx to RotoGrinders 4 putting the contest 2gether (& helping propel me from 2nd to 1st based on ur Podcast suggestion of GB D). Keep playing, maybe u will have such a day!